Online could make up 6.4% of total grocery sales by 2021

Rabobank International forecasts online grocery sales, spurred by consumer stay-at-home habits during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, to reach 6.4% of total grocery sales by the end of 2021. Without COVID-19, online grocery store sales would have made up 4.6% of sales by the end of 2021, according to the forecast released in June.

Online grocery sales were 3.1% of total grocery sales at the end of 2019. Depending on several factors, online grocery sales could represent anywhere from 4.8% to 9.1% of total grocery sales by the end of 2021.

“While our model suggests that a wide range of outcomes are possible, we feel the direct, long-term impact of the pandemic on US online grocery sales will be fairly modest, with the most likely scenario leading to a 12- to 18-month acceleration in online grocery penetration compared to a scenario in which the pandemic never occurred,” the report said. “Even if the growth from COVID-19 is short-lived, we believe the recent increase in focus and investment in e-commerce is justified. While there are exceptions, many food and beverage companies have stalled e-commerce investments for so long there is little risk of an over-adjustment.”

More first-time users, a high intensity of use and the length of the pandemic all could increase penetration of online sales. Bad user experiences, limited capacity and the demographics of new users could decrease penetration.