E-commerce to account for 20% of U.S. grocery market by 2026

Online grocery sales will surpass 20% of the overall U.S. grocery retail market in the next five years, at least several years before pre-pandemic projections, a new Mercatus/Incisiv study predicts.

Grocery e-commerce sales are forecast to account for 9.5% of total U.S. grocery sales of $1.097 trillion this year, up from 8.1% of $1.137 trillion in 2020, according to online grocery specialist Mercatus’ “eGrocery Transformed: 2021 Market Projections and Insight” report, conducted by research firm Incisiv and released this week. From there, online’s share is projected to expand to 11.1% of $1.124 trillion in grocery sales in 2022 and to 20.5% of $1.285 trillion in 2026.

That’s well ahead of estimated growth for the online grocery market before the COVID-19 crisis. Pre-COVID, e-grocery sales were expected to reach 5.4% of the total market in 2021, up from 4.3% in 2020, and then climb to 6.8% in 2022 and to 14.5% in 2026, the study said. Current growth projections include a marginal reduction over 2020’s estimate, as U.S. consumers adjust to returning to brick-and-mortar grocery stores.